The Strivewell Journal

In a recent opinion piece by Roland Fryer — a Harvard economics professor, founder of Equal Opportunity Ventures, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, and longtime Wall Street Journal contributor — resolutions are framed as an “unsupervised trial in overconfidence.” It’s funny because it’s painfully true, and also because social science has been studying this exact pattern for decades.

The takeaway? Most resolutions fail not because we lack discipline, but because they’re poorly designed for real human behavior.

Here’s how what he wrote aligns deeply with how we approach health and change at Strivewell.

1. We’re Terrible at Predicting Our Future Selves

Fryer highlights one of the most basic insights from behavioral economics: humans are bad forecasters of their own future behavior. When we make resolutions, we imagine an idealized version of ourselves who is disciplined, energized, endlessly motivated.

In reality, future-you is often tired, stressed, distracted, and human.

This forecasting error explains why people commit to ambitious gym plans or rigid routines that collapse within weeks. The resolution wasn’t made for the person who has a long workday or poor sleep, it was made for a fantasy version of ourselves.

STRIVEWELL LENS: Sustainable health starts with radical honesty. We design plans for who you actually are, not who you think you should be.

2. Motivation Spikes — But It Doesn’t Last

The piece also points to the “fresh start effect,” a well-documented phenomenon showing that people feel more motivated to begin goals after symbolic dates like January 1.

But motivation fades. Quickly.

By mid-January, short-term discomfort (skipping dessert, exercising after work, getting up early) outweighs long-term benefits, a pattern economists call present bias. This isn’t a character flaw. It’s how the brain works.

STRIVEWELL LENS: We don’t rely on motivation. We focus on systems, rhythms, and supports that carry you forward when motivation disappears.

3. Intentions Aren’t Enough

Even strong intentions don’t reliably lead to action. As Fryer notes, decades of research show that intentions explain only about 25–35% of actual behavior.

Wanting change isn’t the same as being set up to achieve it.

This is why “just try harder” is such ineffective advice.

STRIVEWELL LENS: Health change isn’t about willpower, it’s about alignment. Stress, sleep, nutrition, movement, mindset, and environment all interact.

4. What Does Work: Small, Positive, Specific Goals

One of the most compelling findings Fryer cites comes from a large randomized controlled trial: approach-oriented goals outperform avoidance goals by 26%.

• “Exercise three times a week” works better than “stop being sedentary.”
• “Read 20 minutes a night” beats “less screen time.”



Approach goals build momentum and reshape identity. Avoidance goals require constant vigilance and exhaust willpower.

Even more important: small goals win. Research consistently shows that habits most likely to stick are the ones you can complete on your worst days. Consistency beats intensity.

STRIVEWELL LENS: We help clients set goals that are achievable, measurable, and compassionate because shame-based ambition rarely leads to lasting health.

5. Design Beats Discipline

Fryer emphasizes what behavioral economists call choice architecture: shaping your environment so healthier choices become easier ones.

• Put the book on the nightstand, not your phone.
• Automate savings or routines.
• Create friction for habits you want less of, and remove friction for habits you want more of.

When behavior change is well-designed, discipline becomes less necessary.

STRIVEWELL LENS: We don’t just talk about goals: we help redesign daily life to support them.

6. Think Like an Engineer, Not a Prophet

Instead of sweeping, year-long declarations, Fryer suggests treating resolutions as experiments. Try small changes for 30 days. Keep what survives real life. Adjust what doesn’t.

Design habits that acknowledge fatigue, distraction, and constraints — not as a failure, but as a commitment to reality.

STRIVEWELL LENS: Whole-person health is iterative. Progress comes from curiosity, not perfection.

The Bottom Line

The most effective New Year’s resolutions don’t fight human nature, they work with it. They’re small. They’re specific. They’re grounded in evidence, not optimism alone.

At Strivewell, we believe lasting health isn’t about reinvention. It’s about building systems you can execute, even (or especially) on hard days.

If your resolution this year feels quieter, gentler, or smaller than expected, that may be a sign you’re finally designing for success, not fantasy.